Tuesday, February 12, 2019

What 5 Housing Experts Said About 2019 Sacramento Real Estate Prices! 107924606

From Greg: I quit law school in 1977 to go into Sacramento real estate.  I was 22 years old, and the firm that I joined was Kiernan Realtors, a very large multi-office firm, headquartered at 3001 P Street.  Maybe some of you older individuals that have been around awhile remember that firm.  As I recall, they later merged with TRI Realtors, a firm from San Francisco.  Another firm bought TRI out, I think it was Prudential Real Estate.  Unless I am mistaken, Coldwell Banker now owns all those offices that still exist. 

That was a different era of real estate.  The purchase agreement and offer form back then was a single, legal size page.  There were no disclosure forms that I remember unless provided from the lender later for the seller and buyer to sign.  Now, in 2019, the offer form, called a Residential Purchase Agreement, is 10 letter sized pages long with further attached disclosures plus many, many separate disclosures also.

     The California real estate law has grown enormously since I began in the industry, with aggressive legislation and many court precedents handed down based on lawsuits filed.  This is why there are so many documents, literally myriads of paperwork to sell a single house.  But every document and disclosure is necessary to protect you in this modern litigious environment we have in 2019 California.  Now, most of these forms are signed with e-signing in the client's own home, saving mountains of literal paperwork.  A good real estate agent understands the land mines out there today that can blow up on a seller or buyer, or the agent.  Great care is taken on every escrow to dot every "i" and cross every "t."  These are the times we live in.  In some ways it is better, in some ways it is not.  I began this blog to help sellers and buyers get more understanding of the marketplace and gain information that can protect and serve them in making better decisions and save them $$ on their bottom line.

And now, our feature article.     

What 5 Housing Experts Said About 2019 Sacramento Real Estate Prices!

Just today, I ran across this recent Sacbee.com article, written by Tony Bizjak, quoting 5 experts about 2019 home prices.  I was interested to find out that they mostly agreed with my comments to you in the previous 2 blog entries.  entry1  entry2  Not only is there a consensus that there will be home value appreciation this new year, but they also seem to agree with each other that we are not in a bubble like the one that burst in 2008.

The 5 experts are:

Excerpts begin here:

"Our team: Dean Wehrli is an analyst for John Burns Real Estate Consulting.  Erin Stumpf is a Realtor with Coldwell Banker.  Greg Paquin heads The Gregory Group, a real estate research and data firm.  Pat Shea is president of Lyon Real Estate.  And Ryan Lundquist is an appraiser and author of the Sacramento Appraisal Blog.


Stumpf: 'I believe Sacramento will see a slight increase in home prices in 2019. I foresee a balanced market between buyers and sellers, and that is great news as far as I am concerned. The number of homes available on the market will be slightly higher than in past years, and homes will take slightly longer to sell on average. Appealing homes that are appropriately priced ... will still see competitive multiple offers and sell quickly.'

Wehrli: 'Home prices are likely to be pretty stable, rising modestly by year end. I expect a decent spring selling season, particularly if mortgage rates remain lower as they have been very recently. Inventory is likely to rise a bit, but, remember, we are coming from a few years now of extraordinarily low levels of inventory.'

Shea: 'Look for a very predictable sales pattern once again in 2019. One can expect (house price) appreciation to (be in) the 4 percent to 6 percent range. Continued job growth and upward pressure on employee compensation appear to remain in play for the foreseeable future in Northern California. Mortgage rates remain incredibly favorable.'

Lundquist: 'If buyers put their foot back on the gas pedal, with mortgages rates going down now, there is room in the market to see values increase. It all boils down right now to what buyers are going to do. It’s a blank canvas.'

Paquin: 'We are optimistic for sales and pricing in 2019. There is a real possibility that sales will equal and perhaps exceed 2018 numbers. (Newly constructed homes) should see a modest increase of between 2 percent and 3.5 percent.'


All five experts: No

Wehrli: 'The factors that led to a bubble last time — easy money boosting demand artificially and very high levels of supply — are not present now. That is not to say we are not in for a slowdown when the economy cools, but it should be nothing like last time.'

Shea: 'A respectable number of homes in greater Sacramento are free and clear, and the majority with mortgages have significant equity. Payments are very manageable, due to low interest rates and salary escalations.'

Stumpf: 'Previous buyers (a decade-plus ago) hyper-extended themselves and could not actually afford those homes, and when the market declined many had to short sell or were foreclosed. We just do not have those lending products anymore, and buyers have to qualify for loans. Your average buyer today cannot get a loan without a “skin in the game” down payment, good credit, and verifiable income and employment.'

Paquin: 'As compared to the last housing boom-bust cycle of 2008, there has not been the rapid or significant price increases, the artificial lending that helped facilitate the rapid price increases and lenders have become much more diligent in who can or cannot receive a new-home loan.'"*

End of excerpts

*Source: Sacbee.com, Real Estate News, writer - Tony Bizjak, January 10, 2019, updated January 17, 2019. 

From Greg: There are some great insights above, especially about the 2019 prices and appreciation.  As far as the part about not being in a bubble, I will, for now, not say much but I may have some thoughts on it.  It is possible we may actually have a current price bubble though smaller and less destructive than 2008's bubble, but a bubble just the same, but that is a subject for a future blog.

See the last 2 blogs: 

What is Going on in the Local Real Estate Market? 

Are Real Estate Prices Going Up or Down?

Greg Nichols
eXp Realty
DRE # 00632894

A Licensed California Real Estate Broker

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